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Books about Craps

I'm an avid reader and have scoured my local used book stores and thrift shops for books about craps.
I've picked up the following:
I read through a few in short order, but quickly realized that all of them spend a few chapters on the basics of the game(including table layout, basic and advanced bets, odds, house advantage, etc.), offer some background information about the casinos and/or the gaming industry, and ultimately share an anecdote about one particularly great roll (or series of rolls) that demonstrates the effectiveness of their teachings. After one or two, it's all very repetitive, and my enthusiasm for reading more of it has waned a bit.
"Winning Casino Craps" is old and the information feels fairly outdated (copyright 1980). I think it shows that the game has evolved since the book was written. The book claims, "By the time you finish reading, you're going to know as much about craps as anyone who is involved with the game, and I include casino managers, pit bosses and dealers in this category." That statement is false, and I really hope casino personnel know more than this book.
The trio of Frank Scoblete and Dominator books are basically a rehashing of the same information x3. All of them give the same spiel - Use the Captain's 5-count, avoid "ploppy" (aka high house advantage/low probability) bets, and learn to control the dice and bet accordingly. I'm a dice control skeptic, but "I Want to Believe." There are a lot of words devoted to learning to establish your throw and how to 'fix' it when you see certain outcomes. I admit, I skimmed those chapters. "Casino Craps: Shoot to Win!" included a DVD. I had to dig the DVD player out of the basement. It wasn't worth the time to dig it out of the basement.
I haven't gotten to Wong's book yet. I'm intrigued, though. As the man for whom a style of advantage Blackjack play has been named, I put a little more credence in his opinion on dice control. He worked with the Golden Touch guys (Scoblete and Dominator) to learn his throw, and wrote a book about it. My understanding is that he has since softened his stance on dice control a bit...
I don't know anything about the John Patrick book. I found it in a thrift shop. It's pretty substantial, though. I just haven't gotten the enthusiasm to open it yet. Copyright is 1995. Curious how it's holding up.
Are there any others out there that you would recommend?
submitted by wholehog22 to Craps [link] [comments]

Is the Casino Penthouse Private Dealer just a 1.000.000$ piece of crap to show off with, or does it actually give the player higher odds of winning?

I have been playing blackjack a lot in the casino and so far I managed to turn 20k into 500k at the V.I.P. tables, and I wanted to see if I could speed up the process by buying the private dealer, but first i need to know if it actually has some diffrences from the V.I.P. tables.
submitted by raresthecatperson to gtaonline [link] [comments]

Holy crap, trolls! Today I paid $16.99 for pants. Tonight I had $25 in free slot money at the casino and my total winnings added up to $16.99!

Holy crap, trolls! Today I paid $16.99 for pants. Tonight I had $25 in free slot money at the casino and my total winnings added up to $16.99! submitted by mollshenanigans to TrollXChromosomes [link] [comments]

[WP] You have the ability to predict events a few seconds into the future. With a small sum of money you destroy a big casino winning at roulette, craps, and Draw Hi-Lo. After a long winning streak you decide to put all your money on one bet. And then.. you lose.

submitted by spoa69-4ever to WritingPrompts [link] [comments]

Does anyone happen to know of a statistical model for the standard game of craps?

I've got a friend who thinks they have a "winning system" (based on some random craps app).
I'd like to do some monte carlo simulations while formalizing his "rules". I'll share results if I can find a good model that can be plugged into a spreadsheet.
Honestly, I know absolutely nothing about craps. I'm open to any books on the subject in the event that there's not probability model available.
Thanks...
submitted by NoSiteForOldUsers to Craps [link] [comments]

I had to tip the waitress for a free drink at a casino after winning money in craps

submitted by russellday to firstworldproblems [link] [comments]

Strangely unsatisfied after winning

I had a profitable night, won a little over $900 with slots & roulette, but when I left, after 4 hours, I was not satisfied. I almost went to another casino to play some more. Instead, I did deposit the winnings to my bank accounts, since I lost about that amount last night, then went home.
Normally, I'd take that win and try my luck in high limits (my game is Lightning Link, $5 minimum per spin, $100k Grand win) where sometimes I do ok), but tonight, I decided not to, not even $100. And I played safer than normal, started low, gradually increased bets, decreased bets after 10 losing spins, cashed out tickets over $50, played $20 at a time. I did go a little crazy and spent over $100 on one machine, but then got control again. So, I was up $1100 at one point, left with $1400 ($500 seed + $900 winnings)
I have a strange lack of satisfaction tonght. I'm almost conditioned to losing, it seems. I only loosely keep track anymore. Actually, my bank account keeps track. I used to feel good winning a thousand bucks.
This could be the beginning of the end.
submitted by airwrck to gambling [link] [comments]

Fallout New Vegas Criticism

I love New Vegas, its my favorite game of all time. And it is for a lot of other people too. This unfortunately means that its almost impossible to say anything negative about the game on Reddit without getting massively shat on. The only point you seem to be allowed to criticize is the bugs, which gets rebutted by "but they only had 18 months to make it" or "Bethesda was in charge of QA", as if any of these things excuse it for you as a customer.
So now that the game is 10 years old and most of us have played it tons of times, I thought it would be a good time to make a thread where we can actually criticize this lovely game. I'll start, now bear in mind this is of course all degrees of subjective so don't throw "uR nOT obJEvTiVE" at me just yet:
  1. The bugs has to be meantioned first. The game ran horribly at release and still did for a long time after. Its first many years later with patches and mods that we reached something that can be called mostly stable. I'm playing it right now only with stability mods on and it still crashes about once every 1-2 hours, and its still very buggy and janky.
  2. Caravan, this game's made up card game, is horrible. Firstly its very buggy somehow. I am surprised they couldn't even bug fix a solitaire-like card game, but here we are. Secondly even when it works its not very fun. It takes minimum 3 cards to make a caravan and only one king or jack to ruin it. It means it heavily favors just fucking up your opponent and hope you win the war of card attrition. The game used to be stupidly easy but was then patched so now the AI will spam kings and jacks constantly. After I got the 30 games achievement I dropped it. Lastly the game doesn't do anything with Caravan. There is no quest to become the Mojave champion or such. I get this isn't needed but it would have helped make it interesting. The only other games in the game are casino games which all depends on your luck stat. I would love being able to play high stakes Caravan.
  3. Cut content. Roleplaying is best when you actually have good reason to join both sides. In Fallout New Vegas the NCR gets the majority of the content. If you side with the Legion you can finish all the faction quests in a few hours, meanwhile the NCR has so many quests I always have to check the wiki to remember them all. Its such a shame. It doesn't help that for 3 of the endings you can work with the NCR but only 1 for the Legion. I don't get this when in 2 of those endings you end up double crossing the NCR anyways, why not allow the player to double cross the Legion? The difference being that the NCR will stand down and the Legion will then try to fight you and your army.
  4. Caesar's Legion is weird. I love most of the faction. I love the ideological conflict between a faction trying to redo democracy but running into the same problems with corruption vs a brutal but safe dictatorship. I like talking to everyone and its cool to see how different peoples' options are of the factions. Some just hate the Legion outright because of their massacre. Some see the value of having a safe society, Cass mentions how she considered running her caravan in the Legion instead of the NCR because its safer. Its cool. However I can't get over the fact that this faction is a big ancient Rome LARP. They run around in football gear. Why not just make them look normal, or similar to Romans but not literally Romans. Its such a well crafted faction that gets ruined by this pretty silly design.
  5. Independent is basically the House route but with you instead. You don't get to choose what your plans are other than your interactions with the small factions, which also doesn't feel special. You don't ever get to use your securitrons. It would have been extremely cool to be able to send your army with you to wipe out or subjugate factions instead of just doing the same quest you do if you side with House. Again, you are also forced into a choice between an uneasy alliance with the NCR where you double cross them, or killing both major factions. You can't make it clear to them beforehand that you don't want to be annexed.
  6. The economy is poorly balanced. In Fallout 3 you barely made any money and vendors were just as poor, so it took a long time to accumulate wealth. Most players would just use gear they found instead of paying for it at a store. In Fallout New Vegas you can easily have 5000 caps by the time you reach The Strip. I had twice that when I reached it 2 days ago. Stores have tons of money and are more than willing to buy all your junk. The economy just breaks when vendors are willing to buy all the crap you pick up at such high prices as NV has. I think you can get them to buy for 90% of their value, that's fucking insane. I try to not level up barter too quickly as it just makes the game too easy but I also hate crippling myself like this. The game's vendors need to be selective about what they buy and how much they pay for it. You need 2000 caps to inter the strip, that's pretty much nothing. The game even gives you tons of ways around the credit check so clearly they meant for it to be a hurdle.
  7. The map. I'm not saying its bad, but going from Fallout 3 to NV makes you miss the feeling of being able to go in any direction and always find something. New Vegas is very railroaded. It has a ton of mountains and invisible walls to make the player go specific places (Edit: a lot of people are citing this one setence and using it to rebut me, guys read the whole damn thing). I can still let myself get lost in Fallout 3, in NV I always know exactly which way I'm supposed to go. The game has no counterpart to F3's Andale or Oasis. There are no small outskirts places for you to discover in some random spot. All the towns are along the main roads, with a handful of cool places that are off the beaten path. I love following the road through Primm->Nipton->Novac->Boulder City->Vegas, its an excellent experience for following the main story and finding a ton of side content, and I love they gave returning players the option to head straight north and try their luck. But when I just want to do some side content I always feel like I have to follow a track. I AM NOT SAYING THE MAP IS BAD. Just that it follows a certain design that some don't like. I like it when I just want to do the main story, its a really nice experience that way. But if you want to just go in any direction like in a Bethesda RPG you will get disappointed. There are tons of invisible walls and mountains in the way. Imagine if you started in Freeside instead and just had to get the cash to get into the strip (more than 2k). Then you can choose to follow the I-88, go towards Jacobstown, Bitter Springs, do stuff in Freeside or the other communities around Vegas. Would be a great alternative start for returning players.
Edit: some extra
  1. Combat is ass to say it bluntly. For some reason people always excuse the poor combat in RPG's because its not the games' focus or because its almost tradition at this point. I don't see why I as a player and paying customer should make excuses for a product I paid for. Its embarrasing how poor the AI is in the game, how poorly combat works and how unbalanced the game is. I can go through a ton of the game with my Couriers Stash 10mm and Vault armor and just blast entire legion or NCR camps, and then suddenly difficulty can turn on a dime and an enemy can kill me in 3-4 hits. Difficulty in RPGs is such an important thing as it directly influences your decisions. In Fallout 1 and 2 I did my best to not bite off more than I could chew. In NV can do pretty much anything other than go to Sloan at the start, which is a part that most have noticed too.
  2. The selection of guns is fine, but not armors. Without ultimate edition you don't get any good early game armor in the game. The only option is leather armor. Mid game you fight to get either power armor or combat armor mk2, and late game is all about Riot Gear from Lonesome Road. They could have made armor interesting by giving it stronger buffs and debuffs. PA and metal armor has a -1 to agility but often +1 to strength. Why not give such traits to all armors and maybe even make it stronger? Too much of the armor is also faction armor which you don't want to be wearing unless you are infiltrating somewhere.
  3. Speech is too much like Fallout 3 and not enough like 1 and 2. In 3 and NV dialogue either ends in a skill check (too often speech) or you having to do a task if you can't pass the check. What's being said is largely unimportant unless it leads to a different outcome. In Fallout 1 and 2 dialogue was much more about reading each option and thinking about how the character you were talking too would react. You often couldn't just [speech] 50 do what I want. NV has a few moments where you actually does have to argue and its some of its strongest parts.
  4. Crafting could have been more. This is more of a "what could have been" argument, but personally I don't see why you shouldn't be able to craft a lot more guns or armors. I don't want Fallout 4's style of somehow being able to craft tons of pre war objects you clearly don't have the tools to make, but just having a good selection of makeshift guns and armors would have made crafting and also survival much better.
These are my thoughts. Please feel free to share yours!
submitted by Less_Tennis5174524 to truegaming [link] [comments]

Craps: How to Play and How to Win - Part 3 - with Casino Gambling Expert Steve Bourie

Craps: How to Play and How to Win - Part 3 - with Casino Gambling Expert Steve Bourie submitted by JamieAlmeda to betbitcoins [link] [comments]

Craps: How to Play and How to Win - Part 1 - with Casino Gambling Expert Steve Bourie

Craps: How to Play and How to Win - Part 1 - with Casino Gambling Expert Steve Bourie submitted by JamieAlmeda to betbitcoins [link] [comments]

Craps: How to Play and How to Win - Part 2 - with Casino Gambling Expert Steve Bourie

Craps: How to Play and How to Win - Part 2 - with Casino Gambling Expert Steve Bourie submitted by JamieAlmeda to betbitcoins [link] [comments]

Craps in Michigan

Went to Fourwinds Casino in New Buffalo, MI this weekend. Craps tables were hoppin'. $15 minimum is usually too rich for my blood but don't get out as much now so went ahead and played. Bought in with $300. Mostly played Pass Line w/ odds and $18 6/8. Played a little Iron Cross now and again. Usually had 3 bets running. Did really (really) well Friday and after tipping the crew had $985 to my name.
Woke up early Saturday (wife likes to sleep in). Just me and a gal at the table and another $285 in chips (decided to keep an even 700 in the room). After a couple quick 7 outs, I was down half my chips and the lady decided to move to the other side of the table to see if she had better luck (perhaps I had coffee breath? thought my mask would hide it ;). I usually don't play ATS when other's are rolling but Fourwinds allows $1 bets so did 2-1-2. Pretty quickly she had everything but the 3. She rolled for quite a while with just needing the 3 then the dice went off the table for the first time. Of course we both expected the 7 but instead she hit the 3. To top it off, she rolled the 7 on the next roll. She had a lot more at stake (believe she was playing 5-10-5 every roll)....I know I'm a bit of a lightweight but I enjoy the experience as much as the winning. My wife doesn't understand that I can actually lose all my money and have a blast with the right table (well...maybe not a 'blast' but a lot of fun). Had a few more good rolls and was having a good time then a guy came up and bought in with 10k. The table continued to be fairly hot but he was playing the dark side and really getting upset and chasing his losses ($2k no 4 after losing $300). Even though I was winning, I just couldn't enjoy it anymore when I'm winning $21 on my $18 8 and he is losing $300, etc. Still, left the table that morning with another $800 to bring my total to an even 1500.
Pretty much lost each time at the table after that. Went to Blue Chip (Indiana) for some $10 craps but no luck. Played a little this morning and was doing so-so until some 'kid' (early 20s) came up next to me and asked if he could play (clearly didn't know what was going on...I was the only person on that side of the table). He kept played 25-50 in chips on the 'over 7' then moved it to 'under 8' with an occasional Field bet. The annoying thing was he kept moving chips. As you may have seen coming...he is moving his chips while the dice are out and totally had the dice in his arm. Good thing is it was an 8 but the shooter wasn't happy. To top it off, he just asked the dealer if he would get paid on his 'over 7' bet. Dealers (rightfully) denied him as his hand was on the bet as the dice were rolling.
In the end, left with $1123 to my name. Considering the room was a free stay, I'll consider that a big win.
submitted by TScottyy to Craps [link] [comments]

Probable outcome in a casino

I love playing craps when I get the opportunity to visit a casino. I understand the bets and am fully aware that the house always wins given enough time. My question is this: outside of sports betting and don't pass odds,does the casino offer any bet where the player is likely to win? Placing odds against a 4/10 point is such a satisfying feeling because I know I qm twice as likely as the casino to win. Any other bets like this?
submitted by Nonbottrumpaccount to gambling [link] [comments]

My 1 Year Anniversary of Full Time Day Trading. 3 Years In The Business. What I Wish I Could Tell Myself Years Ago.

This industry has a lack of transparency so I'm more than happy to say I will provide lots of that throughout this post with screenshots. There are LOTS of imgur links to back what I say so it's not just words on a post expecting you to just believe what I'm typing.
This post I suppose is "Part 2" my post back in April, "After 2 years of Daytrading. 7 months full time. Here's my advice". I'm doing this to update everyone who came/comes across this in the future. Yes, it is possible. No, it won't be easy. You will pay homage to the rite of passage into this career. I'll also provide some examples of styles of trading so for the newer aspiring traders, there will be some things I rarely see discussed on forums. So here's to 1 year of Full Time Day Trading

TL;DR - You'll become desensitized to trading. Stubborn to other strategies (There are biggebaddemore lucrative strategies. Don't chase them. Why fix what's not broken? I know what works for me and I'm content with it. No strategy is better than another. It's a personal choice. ). Losing individual trades won't faze you, they're inevitable. Profiting certainly feels better. After a while, you won't be as enthralled to trade every morning, it'll become just another part of your day). Trading is just managing your money through a statistic and the medium to execute it is trading on your platform. Think: "If. Then. Because". Your trading plan should be that black and white. Ask "Why" for everything you do and use. If you can't answer it with documented results, drop it.


I get a bunch of messages all the time from people asking - . Out of those who follow me and chat me seeking further tips through my previous posts. I'll be answering the FAQ's and addressing things I see frequently in this sub as far as trading axioms
Disclaimer: I won't sugarcoat anything. I'll share my experiences and add pieces of advice I'd give to those who are currently experiencing the same thing becoming a full time day trader and what day to day life is like, the occasional distress, (DRAWDOWNS). Some of you follow my Twitter for the past few months where I post my daily watchlists with a snippet that reveals my DayTradingBuyingPower. I do this not to brag but to demonstrate that the account does yield growth, I pay myself, and there are days where the balance does not move because there was no edge. I also do this since nobody else shows their account performance. (Yes. You, Mr. YouTube gurus and wannabe gurus).
We do this for income, the numbers on our accounts are real. Treat it as such. Get your initial capital out of your account THEN try to "Scale your account" with your profits AKA The Market's Money.

I'll go over:
•FAQ's that I get in my inbox (I'm still welcome to further questions if I don't answer here)
•Decision Fatigue (You will experience this)
•The previous year (2019-2020) of ups and downs
•How to use my watchlists that I post on Twitter in the morning to your advantage
•The pivotal moment that changed my trading career (NFLX 10-17-19)
•The road to becoming a full time trader. (It won't be fun unless you're handed the money)
•You'll have a better grasp of my strategy (Between ProTip 4 and 5. ProTip 8.)

There are 10 "ProTips" throughout the post that I wish I could tell myself years back and I'll periodically throw them in here as the post goes on. I make posts long in order to segregate those serious about this business and those who will just become another statistic in the failure rate of this business.

At the end of this post, I'll go over the frequent questions I receive such as: (Answers to FAQ at bottom of post.)
  1. "How do you prepare for a trading day?"
  2. "What would you go back to tell yourself?"
  3. "Books?" (The most abused question, but I get it. I could start a public library with just trading books I bought over the years)
  4. "What is your background?"
  5. "What is a normal day for you?"
  6. "How did you discover your strategy?"
  7. "What did you do/How did you get started?"
  8. "What is your % return?" (Not a fun question since a trading account is not an index or investment account. Intraday traders do not measure performance in %. Most are measured in "R".)
  9. "Is enough to start trading?"
  10. "Why do you need so many monitors"? (This one is rarely asked but I do see it discussed on platforms and people trading on mobile phones love giving flack to anybody who trades on multiple monitors. Hint: Everyone's different. Whatever works for the individual. There are no rules in trading. The only rule is that it works.)

My story:

Background:
I heard about daytrading during the 2008 crash while in high school. We all want to make more while working less. I entertained day trading from time to time but always realized I never had enough money. Horrible mindset because I could have still researched WHILE saving money to put into my trading business.
2015 - I opened my first trading account with Scottrade while in the Marines. Apparently if you have a net worth of over $1,000,000 you can get out early (Biggest rumor ever).
I frivolously bought crap penny stocks. In short - I was a hair away from gambling. What made it NOT gambling was the fact that at least I owned something tangible (Securities of a company) and anything can happen. Buy low sell high was my strategy. Didn't work obviously. No idea what I was doing. I'd buy and hold hoping to wake up to the stock price being way higher and it never happened.

ProTip #1 : If you hold a trade overnight... It is not daytrading. Stop turning into an investor because you can't admit a minor defeat.

2017 - I started taking this business seriously while working in the oilfield as a Logistics Planner (If you're wondering what company since I am asked this from time to time, Google: "World's largest oilfield services company").
No kids, girlfriend/wife or financial obligations. I worked 10AM - 7PM CST and would trade the open from home for roughly 1 hour. Later I was offered to be a Data Analyst... Only downside was... I couldn't trade since I had to be at work now at 8AM CST during the market open. In the moment of signing the offer letter, I was bummed thinking, "No more trading,"
That wasn't the case though. You can still build your trading business with a 9-5 and while never making one trade. The data is there.

ProTip #2 : We all see the same data. It's there forever. Many strategies show their edge both live and in hindsight the same. (Especially if you trade patterns). You CAN build your business as a trader without even taking a trade. You CAN build your strategy while working a 9-5. Just because you're not trading, does not mean you can't build your business through research. You won't know how you'll react to the losses but at least you can diagnose the raw data with a large enough sample size for assurance and confidence.

If you have a 9-5 and want to go fulltime into this business. Stay for a bit, save, live so far beneath your means that it is almost miserable, (depending on your expenses, area you live, family etc) and get a few hundred sample sizes of your strategy! And for your PTO/days off... trade the open. I sacrificed my vacation days to trade.
After 2 years in corporate America, eating cheap food, never going out, saving relentlessly, I made the decision to just do it and resigned. I went straight into the ring of fire known as trading. That was on: September 23rd, 2019
"" (Sound familiar?)

When you hear these types of comments.. your response should be: "Nobody put the time I put into this. The 90%+ who fail, don't have it all written out, computerized backtests, manual backtests, statistics, SOP manuals, JUST like the job I have which is a business, I'm just another cog in their wheel. I'll just be wearing all the hats in my trading business. Instead of Oil&Gas, it's just for trading". One thing I see here a lot is people saying to trade X amount of months/years or make X.

ProTip #3 - Think in man hours, not calendar. Example:
Trader A puts in 1 hour of study/work/research everyday for 1 year. (365 Hours)
Trader B puts in 12 hours of work every day for 4 months. (~1,450 Hours)
Trader A lives in a major city while Trader B lives in the middle of nowhere. (Think cost of living)
2 totally different living expenses and 2 different calibers of dedication. I'd put my money on Trader B because he put in more man hours. (~1,000 more hours on the clock to be more exact).

ProTip #4 - Have a cushion in your account AND your personal bank account. Having a strategy is great but you won't know entirely if you can fulfill and execute your plan until you experience the ups and downs both short and long term. A strategy is constant over long periods of time... there will be days, weeks, and perhaps a month here and there where you aren't making much money. We hear all the time, "Trade like a casino". Casinos don't make money day after day but the odds are in there favor over the long haul.

Month 1 of full time trading was great:
Immediately after going full time, the first month (September 2019 to October 2019), I did super well. Business as usual. No stress. Everything going as planned. No turbulence. At least not like I had ever experienced...

The 2 prerequisites I had before resigning was:
  1. Show consistency in returns. Consistent Sharpe Ratio.
  2. Make a 4 figure trade (I achieved this while short 100 shares on ROKU September 20th, 2019 and even made a victory post if you scroll down my profile's posts.)

First life-changing trading lesson learned as a full time trader:
That money printing spree ended on NFLX October 17th, 2019. Less than 1 month of being a full time trader. Deviating and going against my plan I actually made $500 in a matter of 4 minutes. If you follow my watchlists on Twitter, I always trade with the direction of the gap. If I notate, "Long Watches" that means I will only trade it IF (and only IF) I see a long biased pattern. Likewise I will only be looking to short my "Short Watches". Plenty of times I'll call out a ticker and it immediately goes the other way. No harm no foul because there was no long biased pattern to confirm my thesis.
On 10-17-2019, I went against my plan and it worked.. NFLX gapped up to resistance and I went short when it tanked off of a short pattern.(This is known as fading). The market gave me a free lunch and then some. So now I'm walking on air in my mind:
"I'm an absolute unit"
"I'll do it again and clear another $500 to make it a 4 figure day before 9:30AM Central"
"Should have quit my job way earlier being this good."
Within 30 minutes of the open. I gave all $500 back. Yes I wanted to trade it back. Never have I had the desire to smash anything but I do understand those who do! Yes I stood there and felt like each passing second was wasted opportunity. The next 24 hours were long!

ProTip #5: It's circumstances like that that help you in the long run. FunFact: I never once deviated from my plan since. Not ever again.

"I could have paid for my groceries and electric for the month after 4 minutes of trading if I just took the free pass the market gave me" I felt dumb but in hindsight, I'm glad at what happened. It was this exact instance that married me to my strategy/business plan. The next day and the 7 trading days following. I didn't make 1 profiting trade. My longest ever drawdown - 11 straight trades. While researching I found out this was Decision Fatigue (I'll go over this shortly below)

Put yourself in that situation...
You have bills and your income is strictly trading. I don't care how much a robot you think you are or how strongly you believe in probabilities, when you were in an office less than a month ago making almost 6 figures sitting in an air conditioned office knowing direct deposit is on its way every other Friday no matter how well or poorly you performed at work.. Now you're in the hot seat. Its a bottomless feeling. Now all of your friends and families words are ringing in your head.
But just like a boxing match.. you gotta take a hit to get a hit. Win some, lose some, shake hands and get back to normal life. Water under the bridge.
Mind you:
•No guaranteed direct deposit every 2 weeks.
•No more medical/dental insurance.
•401K retirement is no longer being matched.

11 trades is nothing. You only require ~5.5 trades at 2:1RRR to make it back OR 3.5 trades at 3:1RRR. It's nothing especially in your research because you can easily just scroll a little more and see, "Oh that's just a drawdown. No big deal". How will you react in real time? Will you buckle or choke? But the thing is, I was skipping trades out of fear and JUST so happened to be picking all of the unsuccessful ones. (Decision Fatigue)
Think about those 2 weeks of being in a drawdown. Half of the month. You're not just stagnant, your account is bleeding slowly but surely. Next time you're looking at your spreadsheet/backtest/predictive model/research.. try to put yourself in those days of drawdown. It's not just 11 boxes of red with "-1R" or "Loss" in them. The screenshot above on Imgur is just a recent example.
Think about your daily routine, going to the gym, hanging with friends, grocery shopping, cooking, going to bed, waking up, doing a routine, then losing again.. and again.. and again. Try to think of life during those 300+ hours (Weekends too) of, "I haven't made money. I've lost money. And I still have bills. After paying them, I'll be closer to my set Risk of Ruin".
Here's a lesson you won't learn before going fulltime but I'll do my best to emphasize it here:
Pick a strategy. And stick with it. It can literally be anything. Don't spread yourself thin watching 20+ tickers and be a jack of all patterns/tickers. Be a master of 1 pattern and master of 1 circumstance. There's this real thing called "Decision Fatigue" which explains exactly why what happened.. happened. The article explains that the 2 outcomes of this mental strain known as "Decision Fatigue" is:
  1. Risky Decision-Making
  2. Decision Avoidance
Sound familiar? Does it kind of make sense now? As a new trader you have YouTube, Facebook, StockTwits, Twitter, "gurus", books recommended on Amazon, all throwing their ideas/strategies around, the market has opportunities littered all over.. Decision Fatigue is inevitable for the unprepared. Decision Fatigue happens in every profession. If you mess up at your 9-5, its just a blunder, your paycheck will remain the same. Just a slap on the wrist and move on. With trading, you make a mistake.. it's less food on your table, lights don't stay on, and/or water isn't running. That pressure adds up. No wonder so many fail...
The signs of Decision Fatigue:
•Procrastination.
•Impulsivity.
•Avoidance.
•Indecision.
When you find what clicks with you AND its either statistically or performance proven, have the courage to risk a healthy sum of your capital into it. There are strategies/patterns/styles of trading littered all over the internet:
Very broad example:
"IF circumstance happens THEN "Execution". Stoploss is XYZ. Target is XYZ. BECAUSE over a series of Y trades, I will make $X,XXX.xx".


ProTip #6 : Strategies are all over the internet. It's your account/money, backtest it. People share their strategies here all the time and although I don't agree with them because I know what works for me, it's something to chew off of for you newer traders. YouTube is a harbor with people who give just enough info to figure their style out. You will lose trades. Sit for some screen-time and pay homage to the edge that you discover. All in due time.

Insert key metrics and find correlations. This is how you create checks and balances to create/formulate a black and white trading plan. When I first started doing this, my spreadsheet(s) had so many columns it was annoying and would kill my desire to continue working. You'll find things that are imperative and some that are unimportant. For a lack of more colorful terms: "Throw stuff at the wall and see what sticks" Trim the fat. Rinse and repeat.

Here's some things I used to remind myself of and perhaps it'll ring some bells for you:

Surrender your capital to your edge. If you truly accept the risk and trust your proven edge, losses don't feel like anything nor do profits. Although we're not here to put on losing trades and yes it does feel nice to profit. I still from time to time will excited when I hit target after a series of multiple profiting trades depending on my mood.
If you're nervous or your heart starts beating quicker when you hear the sound effect of a trade getting entered/filled. Be honest with yourself and ask yourself if you're truly accepting the risk.
Things you can't take to the bank:
  1. RRR.
  2. Win-Rate
  3. Number of trades.
  4. "This one great trade that I hit target in less than 30 seconds and I got filled better than expected"
All of these are integral metrics. But you're trading to make money. It's up or down, green or red, profit or loss, TRUE or FALSE. So with that said, find what works flawlessly and is easy to follow. Checks and Balances. Then allocate a good sum of risk into it. I read it here all the time, "Don't risk too much" and that's great and true for new traders. But don't sell yourself short. Push yourself over the edge and admit that you know your stuff. Think of Trader A and Trader B. If you've put the time in.. don't sell yourself short. You've built enough courage to learn a business so many fail at. This business has such a negative connotation. But remember that not everybody can handle meritocracies and that's exactly what the market is. Don't try to be the best, just work harder than everyone else and the output of your input will be relative.


ProTip #7: YouTube trading ads from gurus... they're subconsciously making you think you're a novice trader. It's in their marketing. They study marketing psychology. The EASIEST things to sell:
  1. Health
  2. Wealth
  3. Happiness
People that are desperate for those things are the most vulnerable and these "Traders" marketers are fantastic at portraying all 3 of those things at once.


ProTip #8 (Broken record alert) : Write a business plan. Your strategy shouldn't take longer than 4 sentences to explain to another trader. When you have a plan that's proven through a statistic and WAIT for it to happen, you feel 100X better taking the trade. You don't even care too much when it results in a loss. Because that was your plan, you accept it much better, and you know it was just an expense for a winning trade.


Want my strategy? "I scan for stocks with a market cap of over 250M, 10k shares premarket, gapping to support or resistance, priced over $10, and I look for a pattern biased to the direction of the overnight gap. It isn't rocket science. Check my Twitter, look at the dates I posted, and you'll notice the gist. Yes this is an edge but not the entire edge. How fast can you sift through 15 time frames? How long does it take you to fill out your order ticket? Your Fibonacci time extensions with 5 EMA's and Bollinger Bands aren't helping you. They're lagging. If they work for you, great. In my experience, they hindered my visibility.


Pro Tip #9: Yes statistics are highly applicable to trading. Patterns do work. All patterns do is tell you WHEN to enteexit, and how many shares. Humans will never think differently of money. Be the frontrunner of the market's emotions. Nobody remembers the indecisive leader. Risk taking is a commonality amongst leaders. Trading requires courage and it's O.K. to show a bit of confidence as long as you also have the humility to admit when you're in a bad trade. (Notice how I didn't put, "wrong". You're only "wrong" when you deviate from a proven strategy.)


ProTip #10: Risk management is 24/7. I've never heard anyone mention this but think about it a little bit. Having financial obligations can become stressful regardless of how you earn your income but its far more stressful while running a business. Not just any business, but a business where you can go to work on your A-game, do every single last thing right, trade without emotion etc... and still walk away with less money than what you came to work with. Meanwhile somebody who JUST started trading made a 4 figure profit not knowing what the heck the difference between ETB, HTB, or NTB. Think of it like this, a JV high school baseball player can hit a homerun off of an MLB pitcher once.. but how will he fare at the end of the season? Traders don't predict stock prices, traders predict the outcome over hundreds of trades. People chat me asking what TO do rather than what NOT to do. You don't learn labor intensive jobs or how to fly a plane by what to do.. you learn what NOT to do to stay alive.

That's all I have. Once you have a trading plan underway and you're executing it, you don't have much time when your hobbies are cheap but I still do respond to chats/messages. I do get asked from a previous post when I'll build a website and to answer that: I'm learning how to build a site on rainy days. Can't put a definitive date on it. I will say that its coming, if you don't give up on this business in the next year or so, you'll see it. What I plan on putting on there:
  1. RiskReward Calculators
  2. Position size Calculators
  3. EV Calculator
  4. Dictionary with examples
I just don't want some generic WordPress site. I want my website to be stellar and a great resource for aspiring traders. Something I didn't have learning this business. I want it to be something I'd consider a staple in a trader's resources. Perhaps one day it will be referenced on this sub frequently.
FAQ:
  1. "How do you prepare for a trading day?" I get behind the computer about 20 minutes before the bell. Reason being: "If you study long. You'll study wrong". If the chart isn't grabbing my attention and gets me excited, then I flick to the next ticker. I don't even know the companies I trade half the time nor do I care about a news report some journalist wrote. Also there is no magic news outlet that lets you know about "Major events that affect stock prices". If there was, I wouldn't be here because we're all subscribed to the same edge nor would I be trading my style.
  2. "What would you go back to tell yourself?" Get more data. Save a little more, your hairline and sleep schedule will thank you. Take only perfect trades and don't feel forced to trade. There will be days you don't touch an order ticket. And days where you are busy and have tunnel vision. Next thing you know its time to shut it down for the day.
  3. "Books?" - I try to humble myself when answering this but off the cuff, they're all mediocre. Andrew Aziz's was ok, definitely get it, it's only a few bucks on Kindle. Just don't expect it to give you strategies BUT it will give you ideas. If you're brand new, it is good as it will teach you the common vernacular of a day trader. Mark Douglas was interesting but his YouTube seminar recordings are much better. No book, Facebook group, YouTube channel is going to be the end all be all perfect strategy. Expect losses. Don't be a one hitter quitter after suffering a few tiny losses/paper cuts. Stick to it. Most books will help you familiarize yourself with the common vocabulary amongst traders and will hint ideas. It's your job to formulate the strategy and template for research.
  4. "What is your background?" I was a logistics planner for a major oilfield services company. Later I then became a data/buyer analyst so yes, data analytics/research was a 2nd language for me entering trading. I did have that upper hand and did shave off months if not years for me.
  5. "What is a normal day for you?" I'm always done trading after 10:30AM Central. I will hold onto a trade until right before the bell if it hasn't hit either target or StopLoss by the time I leave the house but it is absolutely closed in entirety by 2:55PM Central. After I trade, I enjoy the day. No I'm not riding around in my Lambos posting IG/Snapchat (I have neither) stories of my profits with my private jet waiting on a runway trying to sell an $7 eBook or a $100 membership (HINT HINT). I grill/cook, read, workout, ride my motorcycle, attack my other sources of income (small businesses I'm building), hit the driving range, shoot guns, etc. I live in Texas. Life is cheap and fun here.
  6. "How did you discover your strategy?" I bought TradeIdeas premium, went through all of their computerized backtesting patterns, tested them. Then did what I mentioned earlier... Tried to find correlations in metrics. It distilled the trades to a strict criteria and here I am. I post on average 4-5 tickers on my watchlist. 7 max. I do not like spreading my attention thin across multiple tickers. I do not recommend buying TradeIdeas, it does have lots of bugs.
  7. "What did you do/How did you get started?" Was a data analyst, was good at research and applied it to trading. My incentive was, "I could have made more money trading rather than sitting in 2+ hours of roundtrip traffic and 9 hours in an office. The data is there. Everybody sees the same charts all over the world. There are ways to make this possible"
  8. "What is your % return?" (Not a fun question since a trading account is not an index or investment account. Intraday traders do not measure performance in %) I trade to make money AND pay myself, so my equity curve will look like a small loss or small gain after I pay myself. % return? I measure my account's performance in Sharpe Ratio and Risk Units. My Sharpe Ratio is ~1.85. While I yield roughly .8 - 1 R per trading day. Some weeks I make 10R. Some weeks I lose 2R. Yeah one week I might make $2,500. But the next week I might lose $300. The following week my strategy will yield $0 and the last week I might make $1,000. Some weeks suck. Some weeks are great. But overall. Just shy of 1R per trading day. Some days I'm super busy taking trade after trade. Some days I'll shut it down after 5 minutes without even filling out an order ticket. Some days I won't even see the open because there is no edge for me.. Keywords... "For me".
  9. "Is enough to start trading?" Depends on where you live. Are you restricted to PDT? If not then how much are you obligated to expenses? I live in Texas. Things are cheap here. If you live in NYC or The Bay Area your expenses will be astronomical compared to mine. A $30,000 account is totally doable for a single Texan with low monthly expenses. Now if you're in California or New York? I'm sure you'll fall below 25k if you have 1 bad month. Also depends on if you have other sources of income or a full/part time job. I encourage every trader and aspiring trader to have multiple sources of income, don't rely solely on trading. Not just for the sake of mitigating pressure but also for sanity. If you have a family to provide for, I don't know what that's like, you never know when Little Johnny is going to randomly pick up Trombone lessons for a school program/play while little Suzie needs transmission work in her car because a simple solenoid went out. $1,700 later.
  10. "Why do you need so many monitors?" I use 3 for trading. The 4th is for music. The other 2 are useless while trading. That's for trading though. When I made the decision to go full time, I knew I was about to go off the chain with research. And sifting between spreadsheets, a platform to see multiple timeframes for a pattern to backtest. My attention span is short, I'll lose my train of thought before I open the other tab to input data. But the main reason was for research. It's such a time saver and is a headache repellant when doing research while everything is laid out in front of you. Now that I have a system. I'll most likely be treating myself to 2 ultrawides for Christmas.
As always, thank you to everybody who takes time out to message me and letting me know some people read these and show appreciation. I would say, "Good luck" but there is no luck in trading. Just statistics. Remember that!
In conclusion: Yes. Full time trading is possible, depending where you live/monthly expenses and obligations. You're more likely to become a profitable trader than a professional athlete. There is a level of uncertainty each day, perhaps each week, doubtful each month, and definitely not each year. If I ever want a raise, I just consult my business plan and financials, then decide if I can handle it mentally. If you have medical issues, get a part time job for the benefits. If you're healthy, just be careful.

All the best!
-CJT2013
submitted by CJT2013 to Daytrading [link] [comments]

One day at a time (almost 3 years in)

Initially, for me, when I hit bottom, it was easy to make changes. Because at that point, there's nothing I can try and say to convince myself to keep going (even though I had no money). In 2 years I paid off all of my debts and now my wife and I are looking to sell our current our condo (which I purchased about a month after dating her) and buy a house within the next 6 months. Life is great but there is something missing, or at least I think there is.
Gambling provided such an exuberance that for me, truly feels unmatched. Winning 10K on a spin of roulette is one of the greatest highs I've ever had. Shooting craps for 45 straight minutes is up there. Hitting the couple of 5 figure NFL parlays and dozens of 4 figure parlays were incredible as well. In casino gambling and sports gambling weren't my downfall, gambling in general was. And online casino gambling is really what did me in.
Yes, spending time with my family is amazing. My wife and daughter are just indescribable. I'm truly blessed to have the wife and daughter that I have. And had I married any other woman, more likely than not she would have left me when I hit rock bottom with a mountain of debt and having lied to her for most of our marriage. And had she left, I wouldn't have a daughter who just turn one and half.
Back to the beginning when I hit bottom, it was so easy for me to change because I NEEDED to change. In Gambler's Anonymous, there is a saying in there that says "it's every compulsive gambler's dream to gamble like a normal person". I'm paraphrasing because I don't the exact quote, but that's what I struggle with most on a daily basis. Knowing that I can't place a normal bet.
I strongly considered once, if I convinced my wife to let me gamble 125 dollar a week on the NFL, it would only be 2,500 for the season. And if I hit 1 Parlay, we would make 7-8K on it. Just once. And after about 8 seconds of thinking about that, it hits me...no matter how I try to cheat the system, I can't cheat myself. I can't gamble like a normal person. Eventually, gambling would do me in and I'd be done again.
My advice to anyone is who is struggling is: be honest with yourself. If you can't do that, it's hard to stop gambling, it's hard to make changes and it's hard to recover.
Peace and love.
submitted by The_Advocate07204 to problemgambling [link] [comments]

Do casinos rebate or bump up tier status for losses?

Not a huge high roller or anything but did end up losing $5,000 in like a 24 hour period Sat/Sun in Vegas which I think is the most for me so far. Staying at Paris Las Vegas (one of Caesars Properties). Losses were in a sports bet and on craps.
In the past I’d win or loss a $1,000 or two so was wondering if $5,000 loss qualifies for a rebate or a bump to Platinum if I’m very close to it. I usually take a 2-3 trips during the year and able to get to Platinum based on that but only took one trip this year (this one) due to Pandemic but thought my greater play this time around would get me there but did not.
tldr: New to the sub. Just wondering if $5k loss at a casino in a day allows for any rebates or comps other than the usual things you already get, especially at Caesars properties but any other casino info would be helpful too. Thanks.
submitted by gamblingdave80 to gambling [link] [comments]

My ex and his new supply, sort of a vent *trigger warning* sexual abuse *

I apologize for the back story, it may be too much but I believe it helps to explain why I felt the need to warn the new supply. Long story short: the new supply does not want to hear your side of things, they have already chosen their side.
I had been with my abusive (physically, verbally, and financially) ex for over 2 years throughout the beggining of our adulthood. Our relationship was absolute hell for most of it. He moved in with me suddenly and then things got terrible, fast. He is addicted to weed, cigarettes and gambling. He never paid rent, and he took out every possible payday loan he could find in the city in hopes of winning big at the casino. He even pawned off his ps4 for some cash. Anyways, along with all this came verbal abuse, gaslighting, and eventually physical abuse. I remember times where he choked me wo hard I felt myself beginning to pass out. He gave me nasty bite marks, bruised my head (on accident, allegedly). Oh and I forgot to mention that he pretty much sexually abused me to.. I would wake up to having him inserting himself in me without any sort of warning.... Everything was just absolutely horrible.
I managed to get out. I put all his crap outside and left it at that. But, he decided to break into my house in a furious fit (He cracked my front door and ended up squeezing through a small bathroom window that could not be locked). I called the police as I was terrified. Police came and talked to both of us, and we both told the cops similar stories with the inclusion of a "fight" we had earlier. During this "fight" my ex picked me up, threw me onto the bed and screamed in my face. Fortunately for me, he told the cops these same details and was immediately arrested for assault. This literally saved my life.
Fastforward, I have a new man, hes got a new woman. I know her though, I know she has been through some pretty crappy things (ex constantly cheating on her). I tried to warn her by showing her the subpoena of his assault charge.
She then goes on a tangent, telling me how pathetic I am for craving this negative attention... How apparently I am not over my ex. I just don't understand how she could be so quick to judge me so harshly. She didnt want to hear a word about what the subpoena with her boyfriends name on it was for... I really don't know how a university student could be so silly. Maybe he has changed, but wouldnt she want to hear my story? He must have lied to her about most of it. I know I shouldnt have warned her, but i really could not believe how harsh she was to me, especially after her own terrible relationsip. I wish the best for them, but I know deep down she will be suffering at his hands eventually. I wonder if I will ever get a message from her saying that she should of listened to me... haha yeah no but its nice to dream.
If you got this far, thank you for reading a long rant about my relationship. Writing this into the abyss of reddit is calming, I hope I wasnt too hard to follow.
submitted by thankuwater to abusiverelationships [link] [comments]

I'm writing a book about Casinos/Gambling – help me decide on a topic

Hi all! I haven't been much in this sub, but thought I would come here and ask you all a question. I'm a freelance writer for the iGaming industry and as a part of an assignment, I have to write a book. I can write about anything, as long as it's related to gambling or casino.
The natural thing to do, that most other people do, is to write something like an "Ultimate Guide to Win at a Casino" or a blackjack guide or something like that. But, that doesn't interest me at all. I've written hundreds of articles for affiliate sites with crap like that, so I really don't want to write a book about it.
I have come up with two different topics that I think might actually interest people:
1) Some kind of a "behind the scenes at online casinos" book, mainly focused on what casinos don't want players to know. (I used to work at one of the big online casinos, so I know the inner workings of how they operate)
2) How the casino affiliate market works and a bit of an insight into how that niche has become a huge moneymaker and is super competitive.
What do you guys think? Any of these topics interest any of you? Would you want to read a book about something like this or do you have other suggestions for topics I could write about? (Not trying to sell anything here, just looking for ideas, suggestions or advice.)
submitted by miss_casino to gambling [link] [comments]

Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts

Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts
Hi guys,
I have been using reddit for years in my personal life (not trading!) and wanted to give something back in an area where i am an expert.
I worked at an investment bank for seven years and joined them as a graduate FX trader so have lots of professional experience, by which i mean I was trained and paid by a big institution to trade on their behalf. This is very different to being a full-time home trader, although that is not to discredit those guys, who can accumulate a good amount of experience/wisdom through self learning.
When I get time I'm going to write a mid-length posts on each topic for you guys along the lines of how i was trained. I guess there would be 15-20 topics in total so about 50-60 posts. Feel free to comment or ask questions.
The first topic is Risk Management and we'll cover it in three parts
Part I
  • Why it matters
  • Position sizing
  • Kelly
  • Using stops sensibly
  • Picking a clear level

Why it matters

The first rule of making money through trading is to ensure you do not lose money. Look at any serious hedge fund’s website and they’ll talk about their first priority being “preservation of investor capital.”
You have to keep it before you grow it.
Strangely, if you look at retail trading websites, for every one article on risk management there are probably fifty on trade selection. This is completely the wrong way around.
The great news is that this stuff is pretty simple and process-driven. Anyone can learn and follow best practices.
Seriously, avoiding mistakes is one of the most important things: there's not some holy grail system for finding winning trades, rather a routine and fairly boring set of processes that ensure that you are profitable, despite having plenty of losing trades alongside the winners.

Capital and position sizing

The first thing you have to know is how much capital you are working with. Let’s say you have $100,000 deposited. This is your maximum trading capital. Your trading capital is not the leveraged amount. It is the amount of money you have deposited and can withdraw or lose.
Position sizing is what ensures that a losing streak does not take you out of the market.
A rule of thumb is that one should risk no more than 2% of one’s account balance on an individual trade and no more than 8% of one’s account balance on a specific theme. We’ll look at why that’s a rule of thumb later. For now let’s just accept those numbers and look at examples.
So we have $100,000 in our account. And we wish to buy EURUSD. We should therefore not be risking more than 2% which $2,000.
We look at a technical chart and decide to leave a stop below the monthly low, which is 55 pips below market. We’ll come back to this in a bit. So what should our position size be?
We go to the calculator page, select Position Size and enter our details. There are many such calculators online - just google "Pip calculator".

https://preview.redd.it/y38zb666e5h51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=26e4fe569dc5c1f43ce4c746230c49b138691d14
So the appropriate size is a buy position of 363,636 EURUSD. If it reaches our stop level we know we’ll lose precisely $2,000 or 2% of our capital.
You should be using this calculator (or something similar) on every single trade so that you know your risk.
Now imagine that we have similar bets on EURJPY and EURGBP, which have also broken above moving averages. Clearly this EUR-momentum is a theme. If it works all three bets are likely to pay off. But if it goes wrong we are likely to lose on all three at once. We are going to look at this concept of correlation in more detail later.
The total amount of risk in our portfolio - if all of the trades on this EUR-momentum theme were to hit their stops - should not exceed $8,000 or 8% of total capital. This allows us to go big on themes we like without going bust when the theme does not work.
As we’ll see later, many traders only win on 40-60% of trades. So you have to accept losing trades will be common and ensure you size trades so they cannot ruin you.
Similarly, like poker players, we should risk more on trades we feel confident about and less on trades that seem less compelling. However, this should always be subject to overall position sizing constraints.
For example before you put on each trade you might rate the strength of your conviction in the trade and allocate a position size accordingly:

https://preview.redd.it/q2ea6rgae5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=4332cb8d0bbbc3d8db972c1f28e8189105393e5b
To keep yourself disciplined you should try to ensure that no more than one in twenty trades are graded exceptional and allocated 5% of account balance risk. It really should be a rare moment when all the stars align for you.
Notice that the nice thing about dealing in percentages is that it scales. Say you start out with $100,000 but end the year up 50% at $150,000. Now a 1% bet will risk $1,500 rather than $1,000. That makes sense as your capital has grown.
It is extremely common for retail accounts to blow-up by making only 4-5 losing trades because they are leveraged at 50:1 and have taken on far too large a position, relative to their account balance.
Consider that GBPUSD tends to move 1% each day. If you have an account balance of $10k then it would be crazy to take a position of $500k (50:1 leveraged). A 1% move on $500k is $5k.
Two perfectly regular down days in a row — or a single day’s move of 2% — and you will receive a margin call from the broker, have the account closed out, and have lost all your money.
Do not let this happen to you. Use position sizing discipline to protect yourself.

Kelly Criterion

If you’re wondering - why “about 2%” per trade? - that’s a fair question. Why not 0.5% or 10% or any other number?
The Kelly Criterion is a formula that was adapted for use in casinos. If you know the odds of winning and the expected pay-off, it tells you how much you should bet in each round.
This is harder than it sounds. Let’s say you could bet on a weighted coin flip, where it lands on heads 60% of the time and tails 40% of the time. The payout is $2 per $1 bet.
Well, absolutely you should bet. The odds are in your favour. But if you have, say, $100 it is less obvious how much you should bet to avoid ruin.
Say you bet $50, the odds that it could land on tails twice in a row are 16%. You could easily be out after the first two flips.
Equally, betting $1 is not going to maximise your advantage. The odds are 60/40 in your favour so only betting $1 is likely too conservative. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that produces the long-run optimal bet size, given the odds.
Applying the formula to forex trading looks like this:
Position size % = Winning trade % - ( (1- Winning trade %) / Risk-reward ratio
If you have recorded hundreds of trades in your journal - see next chapter - you can calculate what this outputs for you specifically.
If you don't have hundreds of trades then let’s assume some realistic defaults of Winning trade % being 30% and Risk-reward ratio being 3. The 3 implies your TP is 3x the distance of your stop from entry e.g. 300 pips take profit and 100 pips stop loss.
So that’s 0.3 - (1 - 0.3) / 3 = 6.6%.
Hold on a second. 6.6% of your account probably feels like a LOT to risk per trade.This is the main observation people have on Kelly: whilst it may optimise the long-run results it doesn’t take into account the pain of drawdowns. It is better thought of as the rational maximum limit. You needn’t go right up to the limit!
With a 30% winning trade ratio, the odds of you losing on four trades in a row is nearly one in four. That would result in a drawdown of nearly a quarter of your starting account balance. Could you really stomach that and put on the fifth trade, cool as ice? Most of us could not.
Accordingly people tend to reduce the bet size. For example, let’s say you know you would feel emotionally affected by losing 25% of your account.
Well, the simplest way is to divide the Kelly output by four. You have effectively hidden 75% of your account balance from Kelly and it is now optimised to avoid a total wipeout of just the 25% it can see.
This gives 6.6% / 4 = 1.65%. Of course different trading approaches and different risk appetites will provide different optimal bet sizes but as a rule of thumb something between 1-2% is appropriate for the style and risk appetite of most retail traders.
Incidentally be very wary of systems or traders who claim high winning trade % like 80%. Invariably these don’t pass a basic sense-check:
  • How many live trades have you done? Often they’ll have done only a handful of real trades and the rest are simulated backtests, which are overfitted. The model will soon die.
  • What is your risk-reward ratio on each trade? If you have a take profit $3 away and a stop loss $100 away, of course most trades will be winners. You will not be making money, however! In general most traders should trade smaller position sizes and less frequently than they do. If you are going to bias one way or the other, far better to start off too small.

How to use stop losses sensibly

Stop losses have a bad reputation amongst the retail community but are absolutely essential to risk management. No serious discretionary trader can operate without them.
A stop loss is a resting order, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. For a recap on the various order types visit this chapter.
The valid concern with stop losses is that disreputable brokers look for a concentration of stops and then, when the market is close, whipsaw the price through the stop levels so that the clients ‘stop out’ and sell to the broker at a low rate before the market naturally comes back higher. This is referred to as ‘stop hunting’.
This would be extremely immoral behaviour and the way to guard against it is to use a highly reputable top-tier broker in a well regulated region such as the UK.
Why are stop losses so important? Well, there is no other way to manage risk with certainty.
You should always have a pre-determined stop loss before you put on a trade. Not having one is a recipe for disaster: you will find yourself emotionally attached to the trade as it goes against you and it will be extremely hard to cut the loss. This is a well known behavioural bias that we’ll explore in a later chapter.
Learning to take a loss and move on rationally is a key lesson for new traders.
A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not.
Bruce Kovner, founder of the hedge fund Caxton Associates
There is an old saying amongst bank traders which is “losers average losers”.
It is tempting, having bought EURUSD and seeing it go lower, to buy more. Your average price will improve if you keep buying as it goes lower. If it was cheap before it must be a bargain now, right? Wrong.
Where does that end? Always have a pre-determined cut-off point which limits your risk. A level where you know the reason for the trade was proved ‘wrong’ ... and stick to it strictly. If you trade using discretion, use stops.

Picking a clear level

Where you leave your stop loss is key.
Typically traders will leave them at big technical levels such as recent highs or lows. For example if EURUSD is trading at 1.1250 and the recent month’s low is 1.1205 then leaving it just below at 1.1200 seems sensible.

If you were going long, just below the double bottom support zone seems like a sensible area to leave a stop
You want to give it a bit of breathing room as we know support zones often get challenged before the price rallies. This is because lots of traders identify the same zones. You won’t be the only one selling around 1.1200.
The “weak hands” who leave their sell stop order at exactly the level are likely to get taken out as the market tests the support. Those who leave it ten or fifteen pips below the level have more breathing room and will survive a quick test of the level before a resumed run-up.
Your timeframe and trading style clearly play a part. Here’s a candlestick chart (one candle is one day) for GBPUSD.

https://preview.redd.it/moyngdy4f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=91af88da00dd3a09e202880d8029b0ddf04fb802
If you are putting on a trend-following trade you expect to hold for weeks then you need to have a stop loss that can withstand the daily noise. Look at the downtrend on the chart. There were plenty of days in which the price rallied 60 pips or more during the wider downtrend.
So having a really tight stop of, say, 25 pips that gets chopped up in noisy short-term moves is not going to work for this kind of trade. You need to use a wider stop and take a smaller position size, determined by the stop level.
There are several tools you can use to help you estimate what is a safe distance and we’ll look at those in the next section.
There are of course exceptions. For example, if you are doing range-break style trading you might have a really tight stop, set just below the previous range high.

https://preview.redd.it/ygy0tko7f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=34af49da61c911befdc0db26af66f6c313556c81
Clearly then where you set stops will depend on your trading style as well as your holding horizons and the volatility of each instrument.
Here are some guidelines that can help:
  1. Use technical analysis to pick important levels (support, resistance, previous high/lows, moving averages etc.) as these provide clear exit and entry points on a trade.
  2. Ensure that the stop gives your trade enough room to breathe and reflects your timeframe and typical volatility of each pair. See next section.
  3. Always pick your stop level first. Then use a calculator to determine the appropriate lot size for the position, based on the % of your account balance you wish to risk on the trade.
So far we have talked about price-based stops. There is another sort which is more of a fundamental stop, used alongside - not instead of - price stops. If either breaks you’re out.
For example if you stop understanding why a product is going up or down and your fundamental thesis has been confirmed wrong, get out. For example, if you are long because you think the central bank is turning hawkish and AUDUSD is going to play catch up with rates … then you hear dovish noises from the central bank and the bond yields retrace lower and back in line with the currency - close your AUDUSD position. You already know your thesis was wrong. No need to give away more money to the market.

Coming up in part II

EDIT: part II here
Letting stops breathe
When to change a stop
Entering and exiting winning positions
Risk:reward ratios
Risk-adjusted returns

Coming up in part III

Squeezes and other risks
Market positioning
Bet correlation
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

***
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

Am I in denial?

I don’t know if I have a gambling addiction or if there is something else wrong with me.I was diagnosed with impulse control issues when I was a teenager and I have ADHD and OCD. So my relationship with gambling is weird because I started off as a poker player and made a living off it and one day while waiting on my seat to open up I used the free play the casino gave me and hit a hand pay. I always thought slots were for losers and never played anything but table games (mostly blackjack) and poker, but after that after each session I would put whatever odd amount I cashed out to make my winnings an even hundred number. So like if I won $585 in poker I would normally allow myself to play the $85. As time went on I would win some and lose some, but I would always leave if I got the change up to $200 or more and then one day I hit a jackpot for $6k+. After that day I started putting $100 in slots on my way to the poker room and $100+ the change when I left. After a while it got to the point where poker was slow so I would end up playing slots more than poker. I don’t really know how I came to this point, but I’m generally very good and self control whether I’m winning or losing, but every now and then I go off the rails and lose a huge amount even if I started off winning and always feel like crap after I leave. It doesn’t happen every time and after it does I lose all interest in gambling for months, but it has happened probably like 3-4 times in the last 4 years that accumulated to a total loss of ~$100k. I keep track of my sessions and I know I’m a net winner, but I hate the feeling like I lose control and just go off and don’t know if that’s addiction or just poor impulse control. Am I addicted to gambling and in denial?
submitted by LittleTwo517 to GamblingAddiction [link] [comments]

A great year ending roll.

Tables have seemed cold lately and I've been busy at work so I've been staying away. Went last night after work and only took what was in my wallet.. $450. Tables were both $25 minimums @ Ameristar. The other local casinos have dropped their payout odds on the ATS recently and I have been avoiding them since. Bought in for 400 at the crapsless table.. only a couple people at the table, things were just up and down a bit I hit some points, was down a bit and hit one side of the ATS. I was up about 100 but things were cold again and I walked with about 100 left plus the 50 in my wallet. Chatted with a couple regulars I know and went to order some food to go, while waiting I went back to the table..... I went to the opposite side made a bet or two on one shooter who quickly went out.. got chips with my last 50. Dice got passed to me, 10 5 10 on the ATS, 25 PL and off I went. I was quickly hitting number after number after number, hit the small and only needed a an 11 for the ALL... called it and threw it next roll! I'm up at this point and can make more bets, I had bought back in on the small and tall for 10 each and hadn't hit any small side yet when I got the all so I was able to rebuy for 10 on that as well! I proceeded to throw more numbers and got down to only needing the 12 for a SECOND ALL which was coincidently also my point. I kept throwing 8s and 9s and 5s press/ collect etc... someone bought in and that throws me off a bit.. I turned my bets off and 7'd out after 2 more rolls .. no 12, tipped heavier than normal and walked with 3k. The roll had the potential to be so much more but I didn't have the initial money for the bets early on.
Side note: I started my craps year rolling an ALL and ended it in the same fashion. This has been a crazy year in which I've rolled the ATS myself 10 plus times and been at the table when others have rolled it at least another 5. The absolute highlight being the all I rolled when my friend had 100s across the ATS and walked with 60k+. Unfortunately I gave alot of that 7k win back cause I felt absolutely on fire for the next month or so but in the end I've had an amazing time at the tables this year!
submitted by Zimbadu to Craps [link] [comments]

Delete Rev Caves, Sand Casino and make buying gold from 3rd party sites permabannable

Rev caves is only part of the problem for this shit and one of the main reasons for the huge presence of Venezuelans gold farming this game is because of the demand to buy gold.
Jagex has it's own way to buy gold through them with the use of bonds, there's no excuse for it. Make the punishment a permanent ban, this will dissuade people from risking their account for gold and encourage them to use the avenues that ACTUALLY support the game.
Sand casino is no better, it's a cancer in this game full of scammers and gambling addicts. Plenty of people I know lose big at the arena and wind up buying gold so they can lose that too. Likewise plenty of people I know sell their winnings. Is that the kind of environment that Jagex wants in their game? What actual benefit does that place even give to the game?
Ree me idc, go buy more from "b o 0 go la g0 fuck ld ( d[] ) c fuck om" and kill the game more. This crap in the game needs to end, and Jagex needs to make an actual move, not some half baked cop out attempt.
submitted by Not_Teemo to 2007scape [link] [comments]

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